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Existing scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) have important limitations and gaps that constrain their usefulness for the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Specifically, they fail to incorporate policy objectives related to nature conservation and social-ecological feedbacks, they do not address the linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and they are typically relevant at only a particular spatial scale. In addition, nature and its benefits are treated as the consequence of human decisions, but are not at the centre of the analysis. To address these issues, the IPBES Scenarios and Models Expert Group initiated the development of a set of MultiscaleScenarios for Nature Futures based on positive visions for human relationships with nature. The first step of this process was a visioning work shop with stakeholders and experts on 4-8 September 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand. A total of 73 participants from inter-governmental organisations, national government organisations, non-governmental organisations, academiavand the private sector, from 31 countries, and with a range of sectoral expertise on biodiversity topics, from urban development to agriculture to fisheries, worked together in a visioning exercise. This report documents the results from this visioning workshop to inform further stakeholder consultation and the development of the associated multiscale scenarios by modelers and experts.

OceanCanada was highlighted in TBTI’s June 2018 newsletter. You can read the feature article here.

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

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Conservation and environmental management can produce both positive and negative social impacts for local communities and resource users. Thus it is necessary to understand and adaptively manage the social impacts of conservation over time. This will improve social outcomes, engender local support and increase the overall effectiveness of conservation. (Full publication)

• Atlantic Bluefin Tuna is an important fishery in the Mediterranean Sea;
• The effectiveness of the current management of Atlantic Tuna is questioned;
• The stock status, economic benefits, and the amount of jobs generated by the bluefin tuna fishery can be increased markedly with improved management;
• Solution: implement economic incentive management approaches that are back strongly by science. (Full publication)

On the 8th and 9th of April, 2015, less than a month after leaving Japan on its maiden voyage, the M.V. Marathassa leaked approximately 2,700 litres of fuel oil into English Bay, the body of water adjacent to downtown Vancouver, Canada. Although investigations into the exact cause of the leak are still ongoing, mechanical issues are thought to have contributed. All beaches affected by the oil were reopened by the end of April, and fishing was permitted in areas that had been closed to recreational and commercial fishing by mid-May. Here, we present an estimation of the economic impacts of this oil spill on Metro Vancouver’s marine-related economic activities, including commercial fishing and tourism activities. Total economic losses to local businesses and organizations as a result of the spill have been estimated to amount to between $25,805 to $31,105 in lost revenue, and between $45,655 and $46,005 in lost profit. In addition, approximately $12,850 to $12,900 in additional costs were incurred, and between 185 and 285 hours of employment were lost. The Marathassa bunker fuel oil spill was a fairly minor spill resulting in relatively minor financial losses to local marine-dependent businesses and organizations. However, it is important to note that despite the small size of this spill, some businesses were affected and were not compensated for these losses. These same businesses and organizations are those that would stand to lose the most and would be hit the fastest and hardest if a larger oil spill were to occur.

OCEANCANADA NEWS​

“The Oceans Are Our Lives” Film Now Available

As you read in our last newsletter, Rashid Sumaila, OceanCanada Director, has won the 2017 Volvo Environment Prize. A film made on British Columbia’s west coast highlighting his achievements is now available on the Volvo Environment Prize website. The award was conferred by the Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden Hon. Isabella Lövin, while Martin Lundstedt, CEO of Volvo, looked on.

(book chapter in _Building a climate resilient economy and society: challenges and opportunitie_s) Climate change will have a profound impact on human and natural systems, and will also impede economic growth and sustainable development. In this book, leading experts from around the world discuss the challenges and opportunities in building a climate resilient economy and society. The chapters are organised in three sections. The first part explores vulnerability, adaptation and resilience, whilst Part II examines climate resilience-sectoral perspectives covering different sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, marine ecosystems, cities and urban infrastructure, drought prone areas, and renewable energy. In the final part, the authors look at Incentives, institutions and policy, including topics such as carbon pricing, REDD plus, climate finance, the role of institutions and communities, and climate policies. Combining a global focus with detailed case studies of a cross section of regions, countries and sectors, this book will prove to be an invaluable resource.

Far-field nutrient impacts associated with finfish aquaculture have been identified as a topic of concern for regulators, managers, scientists, and the public for over two decades but disentangling aquaculture impacts from those caused by other natural and anthropogenic sources has impeded the development of monitoring metrics and management plans. We apply a bulk, steady-state nitrogen loading model (NLM) framework to estimate the annual input of Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) from point and non-point sources to the watershed surrounding Port Mouton Bay, Nova Scotia (Canada). We then use the results of the NLM together with estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading from a sea-cage trout farm in the Bay and progressive vector diagrams to illustrate potential patterns of DIN dispersal from the trout farm. Our estimated anthropogenic nitrogen contribution to Port Mouton Bay from all terrestrial and atmospheric sources is ∼211,703 kg TDN/year with atmospheric deposition accounting for almost all (98.6%). At a stocking level of ∼400,000 rainbow trout, the Port Mouton Bay sea-cage farm increases the annual anthropogenic TDN loading to the bay by 14.4% or 30,400 kg. Depending on current flow rates, nitrogen flux from the trout farm can be more than double the background concentrations of TDN near the farm site. Although it is unlikely that nitrogen loading from this single fish farm is saturating the DIN requirements of the entire bay, progressive vector diagrams suggest that the dispersal potential may be insufficient to mitigate potential symptoms of eutrophication associated with nitrogen fluxes. We present an accessible and user-friendly tool for managers to estimate baseline nutrient loading in relation to aquaculture and our use of progressive vector diagrams illustrate a practical and simple method for characterizing potential nutrient dispersal based on local conditions and spatial scales. Our study joins numerous studies which have highlighted the need for more effective monitoring and assessment methods to improve the detection of aquaculture effects at far-field scales and to assess those effects in relation to other natural and anthropogenic factors impacting coastal habitats.