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OceanCanada Research Director, Dr. Rashid Sumaila is the author of a new report titled “Trade Policy Options for Sustainable Oceans and Fisheries” presented at the 2016 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The paper is part of a larger package of policy recommendations by the E15Initiative focused on strengthening the global trade and investment system in the 21st century.

Media Release | January 13, 2016

First Nations fisheries’ catch could decline by nearly 50 per cent by 2050, according to a new study examining the threat of climate change to the food and economic security of indigenous communities along coastal British Columbia, Canada.

The _Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge.

With 37% of fish harvest exported as food for human consumption or in non-edible forms, trade policies and measures constitute an essential part of the overall policy framework needed to support sustainable environmental and human development priorities connected to oceans and fisheries. The Ocean is a vital component of the earth’s system and contributor to the well-being of human society. Ensuring ocean sustainability has become a global challenge, as unsustainable practices threaten marine biodiversity, fish stocks, food security and livelihoods. The objective of the paper is to provide fresh thinking on the key challenges facing the world’s oceans and fisheries and identify policy options and reform opportunities for the global trade system to support a transition towards sustainable fisheries and healthier oceans. The policy options are structured under three work packages: closing the market for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing; disciplining fisheries subsidies; and addressing tariff and non-tariff measures. In the IUU and subsidies work packages the aim is to ensure that trade does not undermine the environment. The main objective of the third package is to ensure that international markets function effectively and that they enable developing country producers to build sustainable fisheries and move up the value chain. While there is a preference for multilateral approaches, the paper proposes options that may compromise on multilateralism in the short term in order to facilitate the building of broader solutions in the system in the longer term. The three work packages nevertheless provide an innovative and inclusive agenda for domestic reform and international cooperation geared toward securing sustainable oceans and fisheries worldwide. (Full publication)

Global trade in fishery products plays a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of fish, and therefore will be an important part of a transition to sustainable fisheries. This article provides an overview of global trade flows in fish and fishery products as well as future trends affecting the sector. It then moves on to review trade policy measures applied in major producing and importing countries, including tariff, non-tariff measures, and fisheries subsidies. It ends with an overview of recent developments in international frameworks governing trade in fish and fishery products at the global, regional and national levels.

Spanning an area of around 3.8 million square kilometres, the South China Sea (SCS) is rich in biodiversity, fisheries and other natural resources. It is bordered by Hong Kong, China, Macau, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. Particularly, fisheries resources are crucial for supporting coastal livelihoods, food security, and export trade in the SCS, yet they are highly threatened by pollution, coastal habitat modification, and excessive and destructive fishing practices. To allow sustainable management of the SCS ecosystems, there is a need to comprehensively understand its current status, existing and potential threats, and to develop plausible scenarios for its future. As such, this contribution, firstly, undertakes a Taking Stock exercise that integrates existing data on the SCS as a basis for assessing its fisheries in terms of economic, social, and ecological indicators. Second, it carries out scenario analysis using the Ecopath with Ecosystem modeling framework to project potential futures for the fisheries of the SCS. This report provides fishing data on each of the SCS countries and territories, including information on catch, effort, gear types, target species, stock status, small versus large scale operations, employment, and trade. Estimated levels of marine aquaculture, as well as Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated fishing, are also reported for the region. In addition, this report outlines the existing threats to SCS ecosystems, as well as the national management regimes that exist to mitigate them. Although political cooperation is complicated by competing territorial claims within the SCS, there is potential for collaboration on achieving regional fisheries objectives. Finally, we describe the intergovernmental fisheries management efforts that exist in the SCS, as well as highlight the interconnectedness of the region through fisheries trade, with a particular focus on Hong Kong’s role as a seafood importer. To conclude, regional knowledge gaps are outlined, and scenarios built to project the future of SCS fisheries.

Protected areas are a cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, and increasingly, conservation science is integrating ecological and social considerations in park management. Indeed, both social and ecological factors need to be considered to understand processes that lead to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we use a social-ecological systems lens to examine changes in governance through time in an extensive regional protected area network, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. We studied the peer-reviewed and nonpeer-reviewed literature to develop an understanding of governance of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and its management changes through time. In particular, we examined how interacting and changing property rights, as designated by the evolving marine protected area network and other institutional changes (e.g., fisheries management), defined multiple goods and ecosystem services and altered who could benefit from them. The rezoning of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park in 2004 substantially altered the types and distribution of property rights and associated benefits from ecosystem goods and services. Initially, common-pool resources were enjoyed as common and private benefits at the expense of public goods (overexploited fisheries and reduced biodiversity and ecosystem health). The rezoning redefined the available goods and benefits and who could benefit, prioritizing public goods and benefits (i.e., biodiversity conservation), and inducing private costs (through reduced fishing). We also found that the original conceptualization of the step-wise progression of property rights from user to owner oversimplifies property rights based on its division into operational and collective-choice rule-making levels. Instead, we suggest that a diversity of available management tools implemented simultaneously can result in interactions that are seldom fully captured by the original conceptualization of the bundling of property rights. Understanding the complexities associated with overlapping property rights and multiple goods and ecosystem services, particularly within large-scale systems, can help elucidate the source and nature of some of the governance challenges that large protected areas are facing.

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

The impact of ocean acidification on fisheries is a relatively new issue facing decision-makers, and one for which very little empirical data is available to draw upon. This paper demonstrates how, despite the lack of knowledge, well-established methods of bioeconomic modelling and decision analysis can be applied to address the challenge. A decision support framework is developed, incorporating a dynamic age-structured bioeconomic model together with a set of decision tables applicable in the absence of known probabilities of future change. With such a model it is possible to trace ocean acidification as an additional stressor, specifically on fisheries targeting calcifier species, such as many high value mollusks. We do so by shifting growth and natural mortality parameters into time varying functions of ocean acidity (pH), as forecasted by climate scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible effects of ocean acidification on calcifier species with various life cycles were modeled beginning with initial biological parameters of the growth and mortality dynamic functions reflecting differences in individual growth, natural mortality and species longevity. The analysis illustrates how fishery outcomes depend on the extent of ocean acidification and the life cycle of calcifier species. Results also indicate that under uncertainty, there is value in taking precautionary management measures, such as reducing fishing intensity. (Full Publication)