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Dr. Rashid Sumaila participated in the Peter Wall Institute for Advanced Studies The International Research Colloquium on Monday, 27 April 2015, showcasing the novel approaches to research currently used by OceanCanada and allied projects. Sumaila and other project leaders outlined key "levers" they have identified, which could turn the ocean and its fisheries from decline into recovery.

Demand for sustainably certified wild-caught fish and crustaceans is increasingly shaping global seafood markets. Retailers such as Walmart in the United States, Sainsbury’s in the United Kingdom, and Carrefour in France, and processors such as Canadian-based High Liner Foods, have promised to source all fresh, frozen, farmed, and wild seafood from sustainable sources by 2015. Credible arbiters of certifications, such as the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), require detailed environmental and traceability standards. Although these standards have been met in many commercial fisheries throughout the developed world, developing country fisheries (DCFs) represent only 7% of ~220 total MSC-certified fisheries. With the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reporting that developing countries account for ~50% of seafood entering international trade, this presents a fundamental challenge for marketers of sustainable seafood.

The efficacy of protected areas varies, partly because socioeconomic factors are not sufficiently considered in planning and management. Although integrating socioeconomic factors into systematic conservation planning is increasingly advocated, research is needed to progress from recognition of these factors to incorporating them effectively in spatial prioritization of protected areas. We evaluated 2 key aspects of incorporating socioeconomic factors into spatial prioritization: treatment of socioeconomic factors as costs or objectives and treatment of stakeholders as a single group or multiple groups. Using as a case study the design of a system of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) in Kubulau, Fiji, we assessed how these aspects affected the configuration of no-take MPAs in terms of trade-offs between biodiversity objectives, fisheries objectives, and equity in catch losses among fisher stakeholder groups. The achievement of fisheries objectives and equity tended to trade-off concavely with increasing biodiversity objectives, indicating that it is possible to achieve low to mid-range biodiversity objectives with relatively small losses to fisheries and equity. Importantly, the extent of trade-offs depended on the method used to incorporate socioeconomic data and was least severe when objectives were set for each fisher stakeholder group explicitly. We found that using different methods to incorporate socioeconomic factors that require similar data and expertise can result in plans with very different impacts on local stakeholders.

Management of common-pool natural resources is commonly implemented under institutional models promoting devolved decision-making, such as co-management and community-based management. Although participation of local people is critical to the success of devolved commons management, few studies have empirically investigated how individuals’ participation is related to socioeconomic factors that operate at multiple scales. Here, we evaluated how individual- and community-scale factors were related to levels of individual participation in management of community-based marine protected areas in Indonesia. In addressing this aim, we drew on multiple bodies of literature on human behaviour from economics and social science, including the social-ecological systems framework from the literature on common-pool resources, the theory of planned behaviour from social psychology, and public goods games from behavioural economics. We found three key factors related to level of participation of local people: subjective norms, structural elements of social capital, and nested institutions. There was also suggestive evidence that participation was related to people’s cooperative behavioural disposition, which we elicited using a public goods game. These results point to the importance of considering socioeconomic factors that operate at multiple scales when examining individual behaviour. Further, our study highlights the need to consider multiscale mechanisms other than those designed to appeal to self-interested concerns, such as regulations and material incentives, which are typically employed in devolved commons management to encourage participation. Increased understanding of the factors related to participation could facilitate better targeting of investments aimed at encouraging cooperative management.

Globally, small-scale fisheries are influenced by dynamic climate, governance, and market drivers, which present social and ecological challenges and opportunities. It is difficult to manage fisheries adaptively for fluctuating drivers, except to allow participants to shift effort among multiple fisheries. Adapting to changing conditions allows small-scale fishery participants to survive economic and environmental disturbances and benefit from optimal conditions. This study explores the relative influence of large-scale drivers on shifts in effort and outcomes among three closely linked fisheries in Monterey Bay since the Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identify four modes from 1974 to 2012 that are dominated (i.e., a given species accounting for the plurality of landings) by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lack any dominance, and seven points of transition among these periods. This approach enables us to determine which drivers are associated with each mode and each transition. Overall, we show that market and climate drivers are predominantly attributed to dominance transitions. Model selection of external drivers indicates that governance phases, reflected as perceived abundance, dictate long-term outcomes. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Past trends and future projections of key atmospheric, oceanic, sea ice, and biogeochemical variables were assessed to increase our understanding of climate change impacts on Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems. Four subbasins are evaluated: Beaufort Sea, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait, and Hudson Bay Complex. Limited observations, especially for ecosystem variables, compromise the trend analyses. Future projections are predominately from global models with few contributions from available marine basin scale models. The assessment indicates a significant increase in air temperature, slight increases in precipitation and snow depth, and appreciable changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Projections suggest an increase in storm strength and size, leading to enhanced storm surges and coastal erosion, a slight increase in wave heights, increases in gustiness, and small changes in mean wind speed. An Arctic-wide decrease in the extent of multiyear ice and a spatial and temporal increase in ice-free waters in summer have been observed and are projected to continue into the future. Limited observations of ocean properties show local freshening (Beaufort Sea) and summer warming (Baffin Bay). These trends are projected to continue along with localized strengthening in stratification. Increased ocean acidification has been observed and is projected to continue throughout the Canadian Arctic, leading to severely decreased saturation states of calcium carbonate (aragonite and calcite). Qualitative analysis of biological observations indicate large regional differences. Increased primary production and double bloom development is seen in areas of sea ice retreat where nutrient supply is sufficient, and unchanged or reduced production is seen where nutrients are low or suppressed in response to enhanced stratification. Future primary production projections show inconsistent results, with light-dependent increase or nutrient-limited decrease dominating, dependent on the model. For the next decade, natural intradecadal variability is expected to be of similar importance as longer-term trends. To improve our capacity to assess and project climate change adaptation in marine ecosystems, more consistent observations are needed, especially over marine areas and for biogeochemical variables. Higher resolution basin-scale models are also required to provide locally applicable projections relevant for Arctic communities and management units.

Jamie Baker of The Fisheries Broadcast, CBC Radio One in Newfoundland and Labrador, interviews Dr. U. Rashid Sumaila about his recent publication in Scientific Reports. You can listen to an audio clip of their conversation below:

Dr. Rashid Sumaila spoke to UBC Fisheries Centre graduate students last week. His talk, "Conservation economics: Close the high seas to fishing and boost global food security, equality," is based on a paper recently published in Scientific Reports.

In a thought-provoking paper released in Scientific Reports last week, OceanCanada Director Dr. Rashid Sumaila and his team of researchers uncovered the possible winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing. Researchers found that closing the high seas to commercial fishing could be catch-neutral, and might even contribute to a more equitable distribution of the world's fisheries resources. Among the "winners" in this scenario, Canada would see an increase of $125 million (USD) per year.